Ago Lajko



Graphs of cool long term trends

September 2021 This is a compilation of graphs that show interesting trends that might drive change in the future. Some of these trends have already borne fruit while others are much more probabilistic. I am sure there are many interesting things I missed out that you are aware of. Email me at or get in touch on Twitter.

Moore's law

From: Implications of Historical Trends in the Electrical Efficiency of Computing

Scaling laws in machine learning (NLP)

From: Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models via Gwern

Amount of energy produced by nuclear powerplants

From: World Nuclear Association

Li-ion battery prices dropping

From: Bloomberg NEF

Solar module prices decreasing

From: Our World in Data

Research grade solar module efficiency increasing

From: NREL

Number of neurons that can be recorded from

Doubling time looks to be on the rise from 6 years to 3-4 years

From: Jacques Carolan

Projections for market share of animal, cultivated and plant based meats

Whatever does happen in this space it will be interesting to watch

From: Kearney

Price of DNA sequencing has been rapidly dropping for 15 years and slowing down in the past 5 years

From: NIH
From: Yaniv Erlich's Twitter

Is this a local blip in the trend that is otherwise ploughing downward?

Global fertility rate is trending towards 2

From: Our World in Data

Keck's law of fiber optic connectivity

From: The Economist for more on Keck's law check this piece

Keck's law of fiber optic connectivity

From: Slack's report via Gleech

Baumol effect

From: Our World in Data. For more on the Baumol effect check Marginal Revolution and Slate Star Codex